The Rolex Submariner remains one of the most stable investments in the luxury watch market, showing consistent year-over-year growth despite global economic shifts and new tariffs in 2025. After navigating the 2022-2023 correction that made headlines across financial media, the Submariner collection has returned to its characteristic upward trend, with select references like two-tone models delivering exceptional long-term returns. This market report draws on 15 years of transaction data from Bob’s Watches to explain why the Submariner continues to set the standard for watch collecting and investment.
Key Takeaways
- Proven Resilience: The Submariner collection is trending higher year-over-year in 2025, bouncing back from the 2022-2023 market correction faster than most luxury goods categories.
- Two-Tone Performance: The Ref. 16613 two-tone model has appreciated nearly 8x over 15 years, climbing from $1,690 in 2010 to $13,340 in 2025 and proving that two-tone watches deserve serious consideration.
- Tariff Effects: New luxury goods tariffs have created short-term price swings, but they’re ultimately pushing pre-owned prices higher as retail costs increase.
- Market Leader: The Submariner ranks as the number two collection by sales volume at Bob’s Watches over 15 years, making it the most reliable benchmark for the broader Rolex market.
- Neo-Vintage Value: Five-digit references like the 16610 have tripled in value over 15 years with less volatility than newer models.
Founder Paul Altieri and the Bob’s Watches data team have tracked over 15 years of Submariner transactions to create the most detailed market analysis available. This report breaks down how individual references have performed, examines how 2025’s tariff changes are affecting prices, and offers practical strategies for buyers and collectors based on actual market behavior.
Why the Submariner is the Industry Benchmark in 2025
The Rolex Submariner has defined what a dive watch should be since 1953. Over seven decades, it has evolved from a professional tool into a cultural icon that represents achievement and timeless design. This reputation has translated into market performance that consistently outpaces other luxury watches and sets the tone for the entire pre-owned industry.
At Bob’s Watches, the Submariner ranks as the number two collection by total sales volume over the past 15 years, second only to the Datejust. This extensive transaction history, covering thousands of sales across dozens of references, makes the Submariner the perfect model for understanding market trends and measuring the overall health of the pre-owned Rolex sector.
Several factors are shaping Submariner performance in 2025:
- New Luxury Tariffs: The 2025 tariff policies represent the biggest disruption to the luxury watch market in recent years. While these tariffs have caused short-term price volatility, they’re creating upward pressure on pre-owned values as authorized dealer prices climb.
- Limited Production: Rolex maintains tight control over production volumes, keeping inventory scarce at authorized dealers. Steel sport models remain especially difficult to find at retail, which drives steady demand to the secondary market.
- Safe Haven Asset: With stock market volatility and economic uncertainty persisting, more buyers are turning to tangible assets like the Submariner that have proven their value over decades rather than months.
- Timeless Appeal: Unlike trend-driven collectibles, the Submariner’s design and cultural relevance span multiple generations, creating demand that survives temporary market conditions.
The Big Picture: Rolex Submariner Sales Volume and Price Trends (2010–2025)
To understand the Submariner’s investment potential, you need to look at both how often these watches trade hands and how their prices have moved over time. The 15-year data from Bob’s Watches reveals clear patterns that explain how the modern luxury watch market actually works.
Transaction volume for Submariner models has stayed remarkably consistent over the past 15 years, with occasional spikes and dips that line up with major economic events. The volume dropped in 2015 when the strong U.S. dollar dampened luxury goods sales globally, then surged during 2020-2022 as pandemic-era stimulus and low interest rates pushed money into alternative assets. Volume returned to normal levels in 2023 during the market correction, and the healthy transaction activity in 2025 signals genuine market stability rather than speculative trading. Average selling prices tell an even more detailed story about market maturation, moving through four distinct phases that reflect broader economic conditions and collector behavior.
Market Phase Overview
| Market Phase | Timeframe | Price Behavior | Key Takeaway |
| Steady Growth | Before 2020 | Consistent appreciation above inflation | Classic blue-chip performance with reliable returns reflecting real collector demand |
| The Surge | 2020 – 2022 | Rapid climb to ~$16k average | Pandemic stimulus, low rates, and crypto gains created unprecedented demand and established Submariner as sports watch benchmark |
| The Correction | 2022 – 2023 | Significant pullback from peak | Rising rates and economic uncertainty brought “crash” headlines, but represented healthy reset that separated collectors from speculators |
| 2025 Recovery | 2024-2025 | Upward trend with normal fluctuation | Year-over-year growth despite tariffs and uncertainty proves underlying strength and more stable, mature market |
This long view shows that the Submariner’s value story is still very much intact. The 2020-2022 surge was the unusual period, not what followed. Today’s market represents a return to the Submariner’s historical pattern of steady, reliable appreciation supported by collector demand and limited supply.
Reference-Specific Deep Dive: Best-Selling Submariner Models for Investment
While the entire Submariner collection performs well, specific references have delivered significant returns. Understanding which models have gained the most value, and why, helps guide smarter buying decisions in today’s market.
Rolex Submariner 116610LN (The Modern Workhorse)
The Ref. 116610LN represents the modern ceramic bezel era and serves as the standard for contemporary steel sports watch investing. Produced from 2010 to 2020, this reference bridges neo-vintage design elements with modern manufacturing, including Rolex’s Cerachrom ceramic bezel, the reliable Caliber 3135 movement, and the maxi dial with larger hour markers. What makes the 116610LN especially attractive is its stability. Unlike some references that saw extreme volatility during the 2020-2022 surge and subsequent drop, this model maintained relatively steady pricing with consistent buyer interest, and as the last Submariner with classic 40mm case proportions before the 2020 update to 41mm, it occupies a unique place in the brand’s portfolio that appeals to a wide range of collectors.
Investment Performance:
- 2020 Average Price: $12,545
- 2025 Average Price: $15,579
- Total Appreciation: ~$3,000 (24% return over 5 years)
- Key Advantage: Excellent value retention through market correction
- Investment Factor: Discontinued status ensures growing scarcity; mint condition examples with complete sets command premium prices
Rolex Submariner 16613 (The Two-Tone Heavyweight)
The Ref. 16613 has rewritten the story around two-tone luxury watches. For years, two-tone Rolesor models were considered less desirable than all-steel or all-gold versions, seen as a compromise rather than a statement, but the market has completely reversed that thinking. This growth reflects several trends: two-tone combinations have gained acceptance in luxury watches generally, the 16613’s discontinued status (production ended in 2009) creates scarcity, and there’s been a shift toward gold-accented models that offer more visual presence than all-steel variants. The combination of blue dial and bezel with yellow gold (also called the Rolex Bluesy) has proven especially popular with collectors who view two-tone as distinctive rather than dated.
Investment Performance:
- 2010 Average Price: $1,690.42
- 2025 Average Price: $13,339.58
- Total Appreciation: Nearly 8x (roughly 690% return over 15 years)
- Key Advantage: Most explosive long-term growth in the Submariner lineup
- Investment Factor: Condition matters significantly; pristine examples with minimal wear to gold components command substantial premiums
Rolex Submariner 16610 (The Classic 5-Digit Purist’s Choice)
The Ref. 16610 is the quintessential neo-vintage Submariner, and is the final version of the classic aluminum bezel design that defined the collection from 1953 through 2010. Produced from 1988 to 2010, the 16610 features the proven Caliber 3135 movement, aluminum bezel insert, and the 40mm proportions that many collectors consider perfect. What sets the 16610 apart is the consistency of its performance. This reference didn’t experience the extreme price spikes of 2020-2022, nor did it suffer the sharp corrections that followed. Instead, it has steadily appreciated based on collector demand, driven by originality, condition, and the growing scarcity of unpolished examples with full documentation.
Investment Performance:
- 2010 Average Price: $3,800
- 2025 Average Price: $11,495
- Total Appreciation: Roughly 3x (about 202% return over 15 years)
- Key Advantage: Consistent performance with notably less volatility than modern references
- Investment Factor: Unpolished cases with sharp lugs command premiums; originality with matching serial numbers especially valued
Other High-Performing Investment Submariners to Watch
Several other Submariner references deserve attention for investment consideration.
- The No-Date (Ref. 124060 / 114060 / 14060): The Submariner without a date window is the purest form of the original dive watch concept. The current 124060 and its predecessors, ref. 114060 and the five-digit ref. 14060, appeal to collectors who prefer symmetry and simplicity. The absence of the Cyclops lens creates a cleaner dial that has built a devoted following. Strong collector demand for the minimalist design has translated into excellent value retention, particularly for the discontinued 14060M variant.
- The “Hulk” (Ref. 116610LV): Produced from 2010 to 2020, the Hulk with its green dial and bezel is one of the most distinctive Submariner variants ever made. Its limited production run and discontinued status have driven significant appreciation, especially among collectors drawn to colorful sports watches. The Hulk maintained strong pricing through the market correction, showing that distinctive colorways can hold lasting premiums.
- The “Starbucks” (Ref. 126610LV): The current green Submariner continues the legacy of the Hulk but with a black dial and green bezel combination that references the original 50th-anniversary model from 2003. Despite being in current production, the Starbucks maintains sustained demand and commands premiums in the secondary market due to limited authorized dealer availability. For buyers with longer time horizons, acquiring current production models can yield significant returns once they’re discontinued.
- The Full Gold Models (Ref. 126618LN/LB): While secondary market prices for solid gold Submariners can fluctuate more than steel models, the primary retail market tells an interesting story. Rolex implemented substantial price increases for gold models in January 2025, with the yellow gold Submariner now retailing above $44,000. These retail price hikes create upward pressure on pre-owned prices and suggest that gold Submariners may represent significant long-term value, particularly for portfolios seeking diversification beyond steel sports watches.
The Unmatched Investment Stability of the Pre-Owned Rolex Submariner
The data makes a clear case. The Rolex Submariner is the best Rolex to invest in, backed by its resilience through market cycles, 70-year history of value retention, and position as the industry benchmark. While other models may show more dramatic short-term gains, no other Rolex reference combines the Submariner’s liquidity, broad collector appeal, and consistent long-term appreciation.
Expert Investment Tips from Paul Altieri:
- Focus on Condition: Mint condition examples with minimal wear command significant premiums over average watches. For vintage and neo-vintage references, unpolished cases with sharp, defined lugs are especially valuable. Complete sets with original box and papers provide authentication and provenance that translate directly into higher resale values.
- Reference Matters: While modern references have better accessibility and contemporary features, neo-vintage five-digit references like the 16610 offer strong long-term scarcity value as pristine examples become harder to source. Two-tone references like the 16613 have proven that less conventional choices can deliver exceptional returns.
- Buy What You Love: The best strategy is to acquire watches you genuinely appreciate and would be happy to wear regardless of minor market fluctuations. The Submariner’s timeless design ensures you’ll enjoy it as a daily companion while it appreciates, making it the rare investment that delivers both utility and returns.
- Consider Market Timing: The post-correction market of 2025 is an attractive entry point compared to peak 2021-2022 pricing, while still reflecting the Submariner’s fundamental value. Current pricing offers better value than the speculative surge period while maintaining the security of an established blue-chip asset.
The data validates the Submariner’s status as a generational asset, a classic that will continue to be valued by collectors for decades to come. The Submariner is one of the most dependable choices on the market, whether you’re a first-time luxury watch buyer seeking a reliable entry into collecting, an established collector building a Rolex portfolio, or an investor diversifying into tangible assets.
Collectors in the market for other iconic investments beyond the Submariner, models like the Patek Philippe Nautilus also represent the pinnacle of horological value. As leaders in the certified pre-owned market, the data and insights we publish at Bob’s Watches are designed to help you make the most informed decision possible, whether you are buying or selling.
